The NBA Rookie of the Year award is often a barometer for future stars, historically going to the most productive rookie scorer. A glance at the past reveals that half of the last 10 winners topped the scoring charts among rookies, and half of the past 16 recipients of the award have been No. 1 overall picks. Rarely does the award go to a player outside the top five picks, though exceptions like Damian Lillard and Malcolm Brogdon stand out.
The Big Men Trend
Since 2003, only four big men have captured the Rookie of the Year award: Emeka Okafor, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Victor Wembanyama. This trend showcases the evolving nature of the NBA, where versatility and perimeter play are increasingly valued. This year's draft class (2024), however, is considered among the least promising in NBA history, making the pursuit of the Rookie of the Year award open but equally uncertain.
A Year of Projects
The 2024 draft's top two picks are seen as projects rather than immediate impact players, and neither occupies a guard position. Reed Sheppard, the highest-picked guard from this draft, finds himself in Houston's competitive backcourt, where he is expected to contribute significantly, given the team's urgent need for shooting. As one insider noted, "They badly need his shooting."
Shooting Struggles and Competitive Backcourts
Stephon Castle's performance at UConn, where he managed just 26.7% on three-pointers, and Ron Holland’s 23.9% 3-point shooting percentage in the G-League highlight the shooting struggles among rookies. Alex Sarr, who shot a dismal 19.1% from the floor during Summer League, faces an uphill battle. His transition is complicated further by what one commentator described as a challenging playing environment: "Playing for Washington kills Sarr’s candidacy because he has nobody to set him up."
Prospects in the Pipeline
Zach Edey's situation appears more optimistic as he is relatively certain to start for the Memphis Grizzlies. Edey is expected to emulate the playing style of Jonas Valanciunas, aiming to make his mark in the league. Another promising rookie, Rob Dillingham, was drafted by the Timberwolves as a future replacement for veteran guard Mike Conley, suggesting a clear path for his development within the team.
However, the path to significant playing time is murky for others. Portland's Donovan Clingan languishes behind established big men Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III. Elsewhere, Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels are in stiff competition with rookie Zaccharie Risacher to secure forward positions on Trae Young’s team, making minutes hard to come by.
Rookies Facing Blockers
Isaiah Collier's prospects are similarly restricted, blocked by the presence of Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson. For Dalton Knecht, opportunities on the Lakers are limited by the roles occupied by Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell. The rookie journey, often a test of adaptability and resilience, appears especially daunting this season.
Last season, Brandin Podziemski and Jaime Jaquez Jr. received votes as rookies outside of the lottery, though neither was a serious contender for the top rookie honor. This reality underscores the challenge faced by players outside the top draft picks to make a substantial impact in their first season.
As the new season unfolds, the race for the Rookie of the Year award will undoubtedly be tightly contested, with several rookies vying to outshine their peers. While less heralded, the journeys of these young players could bring unexpected surprises, adding a layer of intrigue to an already unpredictable NBA season.