The Minnesota Twins faced another heart-wrenching defeat at Progressive Field, falling 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians after blowing a three-run lead. This loss marks the Twins' 18th defeat in their last 27 games, further dwindling their postseason odds. As of September 5, FanGraphs had put the Twins' postseason chances at an optimistic 95.4%. However, that hope has now shrunk to a more precarious 76.4%.
Struggles on the Mound and at the Plate
Griffin Jax, who took to the mound in the bottom of the eighth, yielded a game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo. This critical mistake was a continuation of the recent woes for the Twins' bullpen, which now holds a 5.47 ERA over the recent 27-game stretch. The bullpen, once ranked tenth in the league with a win probability added (WPA) of plus-3.41, has now dropped to a league-worst minus-2.75 WPA.
“It’s pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff,” Jax admitted, encapsulating the sentiment surrounding the Twins' recent bullpen struggles.
Notably, the Twins' rotation hasn't fared much better, posting a 6.07 ERA and averaging just 4.38 innings per start over the same span. It's clear that the pitching staff is struggling immensely, an issue that has become a thorn in the side of their playoff aspirations.
Offensive Inconsistencies
Offensively, the Twins have also hit a snag. In 12 of their last 27 games, they failed to score more than three runs. The team is batting a mediocre .236 with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. The struggle is even more glaring when the bases are empty, as the Twins are hitting .272, ranking them among the worst in the league.
"If we’re able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not," said Manager Rocco Baldelli. "We have to do better, and we have to put nine innings together."
Despite the dismal performance, some players are trying to provide a spark. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are collectively hitting 5-for-15 with two doubles and a homer this month, displaying the kind of play that the Twins desperately need more of.
Season on the Line
The Twins' current position in the standings is tenuous, clinging to the third AL wild-card spot with a razor-thin lead of 1 1/2 games. Both the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners are breathing down their necks, just two games behind. However, the Twins can find some solace in holding crucial tiebreakers over both teams.
"Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking," said starting pitcher Pablo López. "Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow."
On the Horizon
With 17 games in the last 18 days, fatigue is undoubtedly a factor. Nevertheless, the return of Max Kepler offers a glimmer of hope. Additionally, the Twins recently claimed left-hander Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin has a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances this season.
“We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don’t have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help,” noted Derek Falvey, Twins' Head of Baseball Operations.
Baldelli echoed the need for improvement, stating, “We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we’re going to do this.”
Indeed, if the Twins aim to secure their postseason spot, they must find consistency at both ends of the game and regain their early-season form. With several critical matchups ahead, every pitch, every hit, and every game will be crucial in determining their fate.